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World Bank revises its growth projections for Russia for 2015 and 2016

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09.12.2014

Moscow, December 9, 2014 – The World Bank has updated its economic outlook for Russia for 2015 and 2016 to reflect a further decline and increased volatility in global oil prices. The revised outlook is articulated through three scenarios – a baseline, an upper, and a lower- case – based on different oil price assumptions.

The new baseline, or most likely scenario, assumes an average oil price of US$78 per barrel for 2015 and of US$80 per barrel for 2016. On this basis, real GDP is projected to contract by 0.7 percent in 2015, before increasing by 0.3 percent in 2016.

The lower-case scenario assumes an average oil price of US$70 per barrel in 2015 and US$72 per barrel in 2016. In this scenario, the Russian economy is projected to contract by 1.5 percent in 2015, before expanding mildly by 0.3 percent in 2016. Investment would contract by more than under the baseline scenario.

The uppercase scenario assumes an average oil price of US$85 per barrel for 2015 and US$90 per barrel for 2016. At these prices, the Russian economy is expected to avoid a recession in 2015 and to achieve an expansion of 0.5 percent in 2016. As in the other two scenarios, net exports are expected to be the main contributor to growth, replacing consumption growth, which is likely to come to a standstill. Investment is still expected to decline, though by less than in the other two scenarios, due to restricted access to external capital and high borrowing costs. In 2016, investment and consumption growth would start their gradual recovery and begin to contribute positively to growth.

World Bank

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